Letter entitled Climate heating by climate scientist, Bill McGuire, published in Mutterings (227 July 23) in response to letter from Mick Moor entitled We Need to Scare the Pants off Them! (226 June 23).
Climate heating
I write in response to the recent letter from Mr. Moor in June’s Mutterings 226, to set the record straight. In my capacity as a climate scientist, let me assure you that there is nothing whatsoever ‘debatable’ about the origin of contemporary global heating, which is unequivocally a consequence of humanity’s polluting activities. To deny or question this is actually a refusal to accept the laws of physics. In fact, both atmospheric carbon dioxide levels and the global average temperature may well be increasing at a faster
rate than at any time in our planet’s 4.6 billion-year history.
Since Arkwright opened his mill in Cromford, more than two centuries ago, human activities have added 2.4 trillion tonnes of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere, pushing up concentrations of the gas by 50 percent.
The global average temperature rise, as a result, is now at 1.27°C (averaged over the last five years). In order to stay this side of the dangerous climate change guardrail – equated with a temperature rise of 1.5°C – global emissions need to be halved by 2030. The chances of this happening are now vanishingly small, so we must accept the fact that we can no longer dodge deadly, all-pervasive, climate breakdown that insinuates itself into every aspect of our lives and livelihoods.
What this means is that we will be forced to adapt, both as individuals and as a society, to life in a much hotter world. Extreme weather will begin to impact infrastructure ever-more frequently, as 40°C summer temperatures become commonplace, wildfires, drought and flood ramp-up, harvests fail, and sea level rises. By the end of the century, a 2m rise – which is perfectly possible – will threaten the towns of Boston and Spalding, and bring the sea inland almost to Cambridge.
Across the planet – in the decades to come – billions will be displaced by rising seas and extreme weather. Wars will be fought over land, water, food, resources and migration. One projection suggests that, while we will need 50 percent more food by 2050 to feed the world’s growing population, crop yields could be down by up to 30 percent. If realised, this would mean a halving of available food – on average – across the planet and would be a recipe for civil strife and societal collapse.
But this doesn’t mean it is too late to act, on the contrary action becomes even more critical. Every tonne of carbon we can stop being emitted, and every 0.1°C rise in global temperature we can prevent, can help stop dangerous becoming cataclysmic, and increase the chances of leaving a liveable planet to our children and their children. Here in the UK, our carbon footprint equates to the release of more than half a billion tonnes a year, out of a total 40 billion worldwide, and must be slashed as soon as possible. Cutting emissions, however, is not a competition. We are all in this together and we need to act in concert to limit the damage. China’s emissions are currently the highest, but until recently the US has been the biggest emitter, and before that the UK. In fact, China is building wind and solar facilities on a scale that dwarfs that of every other country, so that its emissions are expected to peak in the next two years.
The reality is that every little action not only helps, but is absolutely critical. So, all power to the Bonsall Energy Group’s elbow and the very best of luck with your efforts to create a greener and more sustainable community.
Bill McGuire
(I live locally to Bonsall and I am Professor Emeritus of Geophysical & Climate Hazards at University College London. I was a contributing author to the International Panel on Climate Change – Special Report on climate change and extreme events).
Bonsall Energy Group 